Tropical Storm KUJIRA Advisory пн, 22.06.

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08W (KUJIRA)
WARNING NR 06//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 08W (KUJIRA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 192
NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF DA NANG, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT
05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED EIR SHOWS THE BULK OF THE
DEEP CONVECTION SLIGHTLY SHEARED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF A PARTIALLY
EXPOSED LLCC. A 211418Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS THE DEEPEST
CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE LLCC, WHICH IS SHOWN VIA THE
ASCAT SENSOR. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED
IMAGERY IN ADDITION TO THE PTGW FIX. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD
AT 30 KNOTS AS SEEN IN THE ASCAT IMAGE AS WELL AS THE PGTW DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE TD
REMAINS IN AN AREA OF MODERATELY HIGH VWS AND FAIR DIFFLUENCE. TD
KUJIRA IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN
ELONGATED STR.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TD 08W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHWARD UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF THE STR. MARGINAL UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS WILL LIMIT THE
INTENSIFICATION LEADING TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS BY TAU 12.
AFTERWARD, LAND INTERACTION IN ADDITION TO INCREASED VWS WILL WEAKEN
KUJIRA WITH COMPLETE DISSIPATION BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT DEPICTING A
NORTHWARD TRACK; HOWEVER, DUE TO A LARGE SPREAD IN THE LATITUDINAL
EXTENT OF THE TRACKS AMONG AVAILABLE GUIDANCE, THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST CONFIDENCE LEVEL REMAINS LOW.//
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