Tropical Storm BOLAVEN Advisory ср, 03.01.

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01W (ONE) WARNING
NR 05//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 01W (ONE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 369 NM
SOUTHWEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 17 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS AN EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
DISORGANIZED, PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHWEST
QUADRANT. A 021821Z GMI 89GHZ IMAGE REVEALS SHALLOW BANDING WRAPPING
INTO A DEFINED LLCC, WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH FAIR
CONFIDENCE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT
WITH LOW TO MODERATE (15 TO 20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND
BROAD DIFFLUENCE. CONSEQUENTLY, TD 01W HAS STRUGGLED TO ORGANIZE BUT
HAS MAINTAINED AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KNOTS, WHICH IS SUPPORTED
BY SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM PUERTO PRINCESA, PHILIPPINES, SHOWING
27 KNOT SUSTAINED WINDS (10 MINUTE MEAN). SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
REMAIN FAVORABLE, NEAR 27 DEGREES CELSIUS. TD 01W IS TRACKING
WESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE IN THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TD 01W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING WESTWARD UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE STR WHICH IS LOCATED TO THE NORTH AND SHOULD
MAINTAIN INTENSITY AT 30 KNOTS THROUGH TAU 24. AFTER TAU 24, TD 01W
WILL WEAKEN GRADUALLY DUE TO PERSISTENT VWS AND COOLER SST AS IT
APPROACHES VIETNAM AND IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL NEAR TAU 36. THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE RAPIDLY AS IT TRACKS INLAND. MODEL
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN FAIR AGREEMENT AND, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ECMWF
AND THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE, REMAINS VERY INCONSISTENT. OVERALL, THERE IS
LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK DUE TO THE LARGE SPREAD IN
MODEL SOLUTIONS AFTER TAU 12. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK CONTINUES TO
FAVOR THE ECMWF SOLUTION, WHICH PROVIDES THE MOST CONSISTENT AND
METEOROLOGICALLY SOUND SOLUTION.//
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