Tropical Storm AERE Advisory пн, 10.10.

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 22W (AERE)
WARNING NR 18//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 22W (AERE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 191 NM EAST
OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
A DECAYING, EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FLARING
DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF THE LLCC. A 091901Z
GPM 89GHZ COMPOSITE REVEALS A BROAD, DEFINED LLCC WITH AN ISOLATED
BURST OF CONVECTION OVER THE NORTH QUADRANT AND SHALLOW BANDING
WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. OVERALL, THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE
CURRENT POSITION BASED ON THE GPM IMAGE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS
ASSESSED AT 35 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF
30 TO 35 KNOTS, WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH RECENT ASCAT DATA SHOWING
35 TO 40 KNOT SURGE FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS A MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH
SOUTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND LOW
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT VALUES. THE SYSTEM IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A
STRATOCUMULUS FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH A NORTHEAST SURGE EVENT. TS 22W
IS TRACKING SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
OF A LOW-LEVEL HIGH OVER SOUTHEAST CHINA.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TS AERE WILL ACCELERATE SOUTHWESTWARD WITHIN THE NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH OVER SOUTHEAST CHINA AND IS FORECAST
TO DISSIPATE BY TAU 36. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR
AGREEMENT WITH THE BULK OF THE VORTEX TRACKERS INDICATING A
SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK. OVERALL, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE CURRENT POSITION AND
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN TRACK SPEED.//
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