Tropical Storm IN-FA Advisory пт, 20.11.

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 27W (IN-FA) WARNING NR 12//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON (TY) 27W (IN-FA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 353 NM SOUTHEAST OF
ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A
COMPACT LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) OBSCURED BY A DEEP
CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST WITH AN EYE FEATURE THAT HAS BEEN FADING IN
AND OUT. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A WARM PIXEL ON TOP OF THE
LLCC IN THE ABOVE ANIMATION WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 75 KNOTS IS BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF DVORAK
ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD AND REFLECTS THE IMPROVED STATE
OF THE SYSTEM. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND GOOD NORTHEASTWARD AND
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. TS 27W IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TY 27W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
THROUGH TAU 72 UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR, WHICH IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ENTRENCHED TO THE NORTH. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
MAINTAIN RELATIVELY FAST TRACK SPEEDS AND INTENSIFY TO A PEAK OF 115
KNOTS BY TAU 48.
   C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, TY IN-FA WILL BEGIN SLOWING AS IT BEGINS
TO RE-CURVE POLEWARD IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING MIDLATITUDE
TROUGH. EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION IS EXPECTED TO COMMENCE NEAR TAU
120 AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND
MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES. CONSEQUENTLY, THE VWS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
AND BEGIN TO ERODE THE SYSTEM. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT UP TO TAU 72, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST UP TO THAT POINT. THE JTWC FORECAST IS POSITIONED JUST TO
THE LEFT OF CONSENSUS AND SLOWER AFTER TAU 72 IN ANTICIPATION OF A
STRONGER STEERING STR.//
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