MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 05W (NANMADOL) WARNING NR 08// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 05W (NANMADOL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 140 NM SOUTHWEST OF SASEBO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 24 KNOTS KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A WEAKENING TREND WITH TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A RAGGED CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A TIGHT CLUSTER OF AGENCY FIXES THAT FITS IN THE CIRCULATION FEATURE ON A COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITY RADAR LOOP FROM KYUSHU, JAPAN, WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50 KNOTS BASED ON CONGRUENT DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T3.5 FROM PGTW AND RJTD. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW ENHANCED BY THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES TO THE NORTH. TS 05W IS NOW ACCELERATING POLEWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR). 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. B. TS 05W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ACCELERATING NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH AND WILL BEGIN INTERACTING WITH THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS OVER COOLER SST (26 TO 25C) THEN DRAG ACROSS THE RUGGED TERRAIN OF KYUSHU, SHIKOKU, AND HONSHU. AFTER TAU 24, TS NANMADOL WILL UNDERGO EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT). STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND LAND INTERACTION WILL SERVE TO SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM BEFORE IT COMPLETES ETT BY TAU 36. THE DYNAMIC AIDS ARE IN VERY TIGHT AGREEMENT LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE FORECAST TRACK.// NNNN NNNN