MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02W (TWO) WARNING NR 01// RMKS// 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02W (TWO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 243 NM SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A BROAD ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH FALRING CONVECTION ALONG ITS AXIS AND A BROAD AREA OF CONVECTION TO THE NORTHEAST. THE ANIMATION DOES REVEAL SOME MID LEVEL TURNING IN THE CONVECTIVE MASS TO THE NORTH OF THE INITIAL POSITION; HOWEVER, THERE IS NOT AN LLC ASSOCIATED WITH THAT CONVECTION AT THIS TIME. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH LOW CONFIDENCE BASED ON ANIMATED EIR IMAGERY ALONG WITH A 081647Z SSMI 85 GHZ MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGE SHOWING LOW LEVEL CLOUD WRAPPING INTO AN ELONGATED CENTRAL AREA. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESED AT 20 KNOTS BASED ON THE LACK OF CONSISTENT CONVECTION OVER THE LLC AND SUPPORTED BY A 081005Z OSCAT IMAGE. THE ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE WITH 5 TO 10 KNOTS OF VWS AND GREATER THAN 28C SSTS. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN BOUNDARY OF A STR TO THE NORTHEAST. 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. THIS IS THE INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING AND SETS THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY. B. TD 02W IS EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST AFTER TAU 12 UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A STEERING RIDGE TO THE NORTHWEST. IT WILL THEN TRACK DUE WEST AFTER TAU 48 ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STEERING RIDGE. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY UNTIL TAU 72 AS IT ENCOUNTERS FAVORABLE SSTS AND FAVORABLE TO MARGINAL WINDSHEAR. C. AFTER TAU 72, LAND INTERACTION WITH THE PHILLIPINES IS EXPECTED TO SPIN DOWN THE SYSTEM. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY TIGHT AGREEMENT; HOWEVER, DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE INITIAL POSITION, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST AT THIS TIME.// NNNN NNNN