Tropical Storm HIGOS Advisory пн, 09.02.

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 02W (HIGOS) WARNING NR 07//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON (TY) 02W (HIGOS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 696 NM EAST OF
ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS SIGNIFICANT CONSOLIDATION AND STRENGTHENING OF THE
CENTRAL CONVECTION WITH MULTIPLE CURVED BANDS WRAPPING INTO THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON AN
AVERAGE OF AGENCY FIX POSITIONS WITH LOW CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY OF 65 KNOTS IS BASED ON THE PGTW DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATE. THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT REMAINS FAVORABLE WITH LOW TO
MODERATE (10 TO 20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) BEING OFFSET BY
VIGOROUS POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TY 02W IS CURRENTLY IN A COMPETING
STEERING ENVIRONMENT BETWEEN TWO MID- TO HIGH-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL
RIDGES (STR), ONE TO THE EAST AND ONE TO THE WEST. THIS HAS CAUSED
THE TYPHOON TO BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY WHICH IS EVIDENT IN THE EIR
LOOP.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TY HIGOS WILL REMAIN ON A SLOW WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK OVER
THE NEXT 12 HOURS UNTIL THE STR EAST OF THE SYSTEM TAKES OVER AS THE
DOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM. WITH THE DECREASE IN FORWARD MOTION,
FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER THE SYSTEM FOR
THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS ALLOWING TY 02W TO CONTINUE ITS
INTENSIFICATION. BEYOND TAU 36, TY HIGOS WILL BEGIN TO ENCOUNTER
INCREASED SOUTHWESTERLY VWS AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE MID-LATITUDE
WESTERLIES. THIS WILL BEGIN THE WEAKENING TREND FOR THE SYSTEM.
   C. AFTER TAU 72, THE SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN AS VWS INCREASES
TO 40 TO 50 KNOTS AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES DECREASE. BEYOND TAU
96, TY 02W WILL TURN POLEWARD AS IT ROUNDS THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE STR. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT OVER THE FIRST 24 HOURS; HOWEVER, BEYOND TAU 24 THE
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A BIFURCATION. THE MAIN OUTLIERS REMAIN
NAVGEM AND GFDN THAT KEEP THE SYSTEM EXTREMELY WEAK. JTWC CONTINUES
TO FAVOR THE NORTHWESTWARD TRACK WHICH IS THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO.
DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE QUASI-STATIONARY MOTION AND MODEL
GUIDANCE, THE JTWC FORECAST REMAINS LOW.//
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