Tropical Storm TWENTYNINE Advisory чт, 17.12.

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 29W (TWENTYNINE)
WARNING NR 01//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 29W (TWENTYNINE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
136 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF KOROR, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 14
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS BUILDING CONVECTION OVER A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 161250Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS AN
IMPROVED LLCC WITH THE BULK OF CONVECTION SHEARED JUST TO THE
NORTHWEST. A 161341Z RAPIDSCAT PASS SHOWED MAINLY 15 TO 20 KNOT
WINDS NEAR THE CENTER WITH STRONGER 25 KNOT WINDS TO THE NORTH. THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE PARTIALLY EXPOSED LLCC IN THE ABOVE
IMAGERY WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON T1.5
(25 KNOTS) FROM ALL AGENCIES AND IS SUPPORTED BY THE RECENT
SCATTEROMETER PASSES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE ENVIRONMENT
IS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH IMPROVING DIVERGENT
OUTFLOW BEING OFFSET BY MODERATE (15 TO 20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS) ALONG THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE LLCC. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. TD 29W IS
TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL SUB-
TROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THIS IS THE INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING AND SETS THE FORECAST
PHILOSOPHY.
   B. TD 29W WILL CONTINUE TRACKING TO THE WEST OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS PRIOR TO TURNING SOUTH AS THE NORTHEASTERLY SURGE EVENT MOVES
OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE PHILIPPINE SEA. MODERATELY FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION BEFORE INCREASED
VWS DUE TO THE COLD SURGE EVENT WEAKENS THE SYSTEM. TD 29W WILL MAKE
LANDFALL OVER CENTRAL MINDANAO JUST BEFORE IT DISSIPATES. LIMITED
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, SUPPORTING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
THE JTWC FORECAST WHICH IS LAID CLOSE TO MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.//
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