Tropical Storm IN-FA Advisory ср, 25.11.

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 27W (IN-FA) WARNING NR
32//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 27W (IN-FA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 519 NM
SOUTHWEST OF IWO TO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES A GENERAL WEAKENING TREND WITH DEEP CONVECTION
SHEARING OVER THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WHILE DECREASING IN AREAL EXTENT. A 241739Z SSMI 85GHZ
COMPOSITE IMAGE SHOWS AN EXPOSED, TIGHTLY-WRAPPED LLCC WITH THE
CENTER LOCATED ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION,
WHICH PROVIDES GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION. TS 27W IS
EMBEDDED WITHIN A DEEP SUBTROPICAL TROUGH, WHICH IS PRODUCING STRONG
(30 TO 40 KNOTS) SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND VIGOROUS
POLEWARD VENTING. THIS ENVIRONMENT IS HELPING TO SUSTAIN THE LIMITED
DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN DECREASED TO 60 KNOTS BASED ON THE
CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE AND DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 55 TO 77
KNOTS. TS 27W IS TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TS IN-FA WILL GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AS IT TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD
INTO STRONGER MIDLATITUDE SOUTHWESTERLIES AFTER TAU 12. THE SYSTEM
WILL ALSO BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) NEAR TAU 12 AS IT
BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND THE MIDLATITUDE
WESTERLIES. TS 27W SHOULD COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 48 AS IT BECOMES
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MIDLATITUDE WSETERLIES AND GAINS FRONTAL
CHRACTERISTICS. DYNAMIC GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, LEADING TO
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
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