Tropical Storm IN-FA Advisory пн, 23.11.

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 27W (IN-FA) WARNING NR 24//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON (TY) 27W (IN-FA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 734 NM SOUTHWEST
OF IWO TO, JAPAN HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A
RECENT SURGE OF DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
SYSTEM; HOWEVER THE SYSTEMS OVERALL TREND HAS BEEN A SLOW WEAKENING
OF THE CORE STRUCTURE. ALTHOUGH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN
FAVORABLE (28 CELSIUS), TY 27W HAS MOVED INTO AN INCREASINGLY
UNFAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WITH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS)
INCREASING TO MARGINAL LEVELS (15 TO 20 KNOTS). THE CURRENT
INTENSITY HAS BEEN DECREASED TO 90 KNOTS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
WEAKENING OBSERVED IN EIR AND IS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH THE DVORAK
ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD. TY 27W IS TRACKING ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP LAYERED SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TY 27W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 12
TO 24 HOURS UNTIL IT REACHES THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE STEERING STR.
AFTERWARDS, THE SYSTEM WILL ROUND THE STR AXIS AND ACCELERATE
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE AS VWS RAPIDLY INCREASES DUE TO THE
STRONG WESTERLY WINDS AND AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH.
   C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, TY IN-FA WILL ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD
ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STEERING STR. TY 27W WILL
BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) BY TAU 96 AS IT EMBEDS DEEPER
INTO THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW AND WILL COMPLETE ETT BY THE END
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS A STRONG COLD-CORE LOW. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, LENDING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
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