Tropical Storm HAIKUI Advisory пт, 10.11.

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 30W (HAIKUI)
WARNING NR 04//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL DEPRESSION 30W (HAIKUI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 44 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SYSTEM THAT HAS HELD TOGETHER
WELL OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS AS IT TRACKED ACROSS THE PHILIPPINES
AND JUST NOW EMERGING OVER THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. SATELLITE IMAGERY
ALSO DEPICTS FORMATIVE BANDING OF DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO THE
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) BUT CLOUD TOPS ARE BEGINNING TO
WARM SLIGHTLY. ANIMATED RADAR IMAGERY FROM PAGASA SHOWS MODERATE
PRECIPITATION WITH GENERAL ROTATION AROUND THE LLCC, AND COMBINED
WITH SATELLITE FIXES IS THE BASIS FOR THE INITIAL POSITION WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 30 KNOTS AND IS
BASED SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM ALL AGENCIES REPORTING T2.0
(30 KNOTS). UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS A FAVORABLE TO MARGINAL
ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, SIGNIFICANT DIFFLUENCE ON
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY WITH A PRONOUNCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL
TAPING INTO THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLY JET, AND VERY WARM (30 CELSIUS)
SSTS. CONDITIONS HAVE DETERIORATED SLIGHTLY AS THE UPPER-LEVEL POINT
SOURCE PREVIOUSLY LOCATED OVER THE SYSTEM CENTER IS NOW DISPLACED
NORTHEAST OF THE LLCC, OVER THE PHILIPPINE SEA, AND BEGINNING TO
RESTRICT OUTFLOW ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY. CURRENTLY TD 30W IS
TRACKING WEST-NORTHWEST ALONG THE SOUTHERN BOUNDARY OF A DEEP-
LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE NORTH.
   A. THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY HAS CHANGED TO REFLECT A WEST-
SOUTHWEST FORECAST TRACK IN THE EXTENDED TAUS.
   B. TD 30W WILL CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 48
HOURS ALONG THE CURRENT STEERING RIDGE. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN OVERALL FAVORABLE WITH A PERSISTENT POLEWARD
OUTFLOW CHANNEL FEEDING INTO THE WESTERLY JET, ACCOMPANIED BY VERY
WARM SSTS. THE UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE WILL REMAIN WELL EAST OF TD
30W LIMITING OUTFLOW ON THE EASTERN EDGE, BUT NOT ENOUGH TO STIFLE
DEVELOPMENT. TD 30W IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY INTO A SMALL AND FAIRLY
COMPACT TYPHOON BY TAU 48, BUT THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK INTO COOLER
WATERS AND ENCOUNTER INCREASING WIND SHEAR MITIGATING FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT BEYOND TAU 48. SHORTLY THEREAFTER, TD 30W TRACK WILL
BEGIN TO SLOW AS IT ENCOUNTERS A DEVELOPING RIDGE TO THE WEST
SHIFTING THE TRACK WESTWARD TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD.
   C. IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, STEERING WILL TRANSITION FROM THE
NORTHEAST STR TO THE DEVELOPING NORTHWEST STR, SHIFTING THE TRACK
SOUTHWESTWARD. THIS MARKS A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST PHILOSOPHY WHICH FAVORED A WEAKENING NORTHEAST STR AND A
RECURVE SCENARIO. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY
DETERIORATE RESULTING IN A SIMILAR WEAKENING TREND. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE SHOWS GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE NEW FORECAST
PHILOSOPHY WITH ONLY COAMPS STILL FAVORING THE RECURVE SCENARIO.
SOME UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS IN THE LATER TAUS AS STEERING
TRANSITIONS TO THE WESTERN RIDGE, WHICH LENDS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE
IN THE FORECAST TRACK.//
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