Tropical Storm MELOR Advisory сб, 12.12.

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 28W (MELOR) WARNING NR
02//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 28W (MELOR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 180 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF KOROR, PALAU HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 14
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH WELL-DEFINED SPIRAL BANDING WRAPPING
INTO THE CENTER. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE TIGHTLY
WRAPPED BANDING IN THE EIR LOOP WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INTENSITY
HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 45 KNOTS BASED ON THE RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING
CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE AND IS SUPPORTED BY A DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE
OF T3.0 (45 KNOTS) FROM PGTW. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE VERY
FAVORABLE WITH LOW (5-10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), RADIAL
OUTFLOW, AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ABOVE 28 CELSIUS. TS 28W IS
TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUB-TROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THE FORECASTED INTENSITY HAS BEEN SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED,
REACHING A PEAK OF 95 KNOTS, BASED ON ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
SUPPORTING RAPID INTENSIFICATION (RI) OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. THERE
HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST TRACK PHILOSOPHY.
   B. TS MELOR WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS PRIOR TO LEVELING OUT ON A MORE WESTWARD TRACK UNDER A
BUILDING STR. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VERY FAVORABLE
AND SUPPORT RI OVER THE FIRST 36 HOURS. BEYOND TAU 36, VWS WILL
SLOWLY BEGIN TO INCREASE AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER CHINA PRODUCES A
STRONG COLD SURGE; ADVECTING DRY STABLE AIR INTO THE PHILIPPINE SEA.
IN ADDITION, TS 28W WILL ENCOUNTER INCREASED FRICTION NEAR TAU 72 AS
IT APPROACHES CENTRAL PHILIPPINES.
   C. BEYOND TAU 72, THE CYCLONE WILL DECREASE SPEED WHILE TRACKING
OVER THE PHILIPPINES DUE TO A COMPETING STEERING ENVIRONMENT BETWEEN
TWO SUB-TROPICAL RIDGES. AS THE SYSTEM WEAKENS DUE TO THE COLD
SURGE, TS MELOR WILL BEGIN TO DRIFT SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE SOUTH
CHINA SEA. LIMITED MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU
72 WITH A LANDFALL OVER CENTRAL PHILIPPINES. AFTERWARDS, THERE IS A
SPLIT IN MODEL GUIDANCE WITH NVGM AND COTC RECURVING THE SYSTEM
POLEWARD INTO THE NORTHEASTERLY COLD SURGE. THIS SOLUTION IS NOT
FEASIBLE AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE STRENGTH OF THE COLD SURGE WHICH
WOULD PUSH THE SYSTEM EQUATORWARD. THE REMAINING GUIDANCE KEEPS THE
SYSTEM ON A WESTWARD TO SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK WHICH SUPPORTS THE
CURRENT JTWC TRACK FORECAST. DUE TO THE LIMITED MODEL GUIDANCE AND
MODEL TRACKERS NOT REFLECTING THE RAPID INTENSIFICATION SCENARIO,
THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
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