Tropical Storm TOKAGE Advisory Вс, 27.11.

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 29W (TOKAGE)
WARNING NR 10//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 29W (TOKAGE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 237 NM
WEST-NORTHWEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT
09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE CENTRAL CONVECTION HAS BECOME MORE
SHALLOW, LESS CURVED, BUT CONTINUES TO OBSCURE THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION. ADDITIONALLY, THERE IS INDICATION OF SHEARING ALONG THE
NORTHERN FLANK. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE ABOVE ANIMATION
AND AGENCY FIXES WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45
KNOTS IS BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF AGENCY AND OBJECTIVE
DVORAK ESTIMATES AND REFLECTS THE DEGRADED STATE OF THE SYSTEM. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE CYCLONE HAS DRIFTED INTO AN AREA OF
STRONG (25-30 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL WINDS DIAMETRICALLY OPPOSED TO THE STRONG WIND SURGE AT
THE SURFACE. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LAYER REFLECTION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A.  NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. STEERED BY THE STR, TS TOKAGE WILL TRACK NORTHWARD OVER THE
NEXT 12 HOURS. AFTERWARDS, AS IT BECOMES MORE SHALLOW AND WEAK, IT
WILL BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY AND SLOWLY MAKE A U-TURN SOUTHWESTWARD
AS IT GETS EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHERLY WIND SURGE. TS 29W WILL SLOWLY
THEN RAPIDLY DECAY DUE TO THE STRONG VWS, DISSIPATING BY TAU 48,
POSSIBLY SOONER. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS UNIFIED IN THE OVERALL
TRACK SOLUTION WITH TWO OUTLIERS ON THE RIGHT MARGIN OF THE ENVELOPE
- COTC AND JENS. OVERALL THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK WHICH IS LAID JUST LEFT OF CONSENSUS TO OFFSET THE OUTLIERS.//
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