Tropical Storm MELOR Advisory ср, 16.12.

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 28W (MELOR) WARNING NR 18//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON 28W (MELOR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 64 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST
OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON A 151800Z PGTW
SATELLITE FIX AND A 151756Z AMSU-B IMAGE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF
85 KNOTS IS CONSISTENT WITH A CONSENSUS OF DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM MULTIPLE REPORTING AGENCIES. TY 28W HAS EMERGED INTO
THE SOUTH CHINA SEA AND IS ENCOUNTERING A REGION OF STRONG
NORTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING COLD
SURGE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS MOVING INTO A
LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE TO STRONG (20 TO 30 KNOTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES A STEADY WEAKENING TREND, WITH DEEP CONVECTION
BECOMING LESS ORGANIZED AND SHEARED TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM.
A DEEP LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTHEAST REMAINS THE
PRIMARY STEERING INFLUENCE.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THE TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED SLIGHTLY SOUTH TO INCREASE
CONSISTENCY WITH THE MAJORITY OF DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE AND THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED
DOWNWARD TO ACCOUNT FOR THE OBSERVED RAPID WEAKENING TREND AND
ANTICIPATED UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT.
   B. TY MELOR WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS AND SLOW AS IT
ENTERS A WEAKNESS BETWEEN THE CURRENT STEERING RIDGE AND A SECOND
RIDGE TO THE WEST. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE WEAKNESS IT IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN STEADILY, AND TURN SHARPLY TO THE SOUTHWEST
FOLLOWING THE STRONG NORTHEASTERLY SURGE AFTER TAU 12. STRONG VWS
VALUES AND ENTRAINMENT OF COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO
RAPIDLY WEAKEN TY 28W AS IT BECOMES FULLY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE COLD
SURGE, AND DISSIPATE BY TAU 72. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT REGARDING THE EXPECTED TRACK. THE CURRENT OFFICIAL TRACK
FORECAST LIES CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS, WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE.//
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