MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01W (ONE) WARNING NR 005// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01W (ONE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 373 NM SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A STRUGGLING SYSTEM AS IT INTERACTS WITH LAND FEATURES SHOWING WEAKENING CENTRAL CONVECTION AND FRAGMENTED BANDING. UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE WITH A MODEST POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON SATELLITE FIXES FROM PGTW AND PAGASA RADAR IMAGERY WITH LOW CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY ASSESSMENT OF 30 KNOTS IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T2.0 (30 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND KNES. CURRENTLY TD 01W IS TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A BUILDING DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. B. TD 01W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARD THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD GUIDED BY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. IN THE NEAR- TERM LAND INTERACTION WILL DISRUPT THE LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW, WEAKENING THE SYSTEM AS IT TRACKS OVER THE PHILIPPINES. BEYOND TAU 24 THE SYSTEM WILL RE-EMERGE OVER OPEN, AND RELATIVELY WARM, WATER ALLOWING FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF FURTHER CONSOLIDATION AND SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION. BEYOND TAU 48 HOWEVER, CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO DETERIORATE AS UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR WILL INCREASE AND A NORTHERN COLD SURGE WILL BRING COOL DRY AIR INTO THE SYSTEM. TD 01W WILL FULLY DISSIPATE BY TAU 72. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE FORECAST TRACK PLACED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. OVERALL THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK.// NNNN NNNN