MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 22W (TWENTYTWO) WARNING NR 05// RMKS// 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 22W (TWENTYTWO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 230 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HANOI, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS FLARING CENTRAL CONVECTION BEING SHEARED TO THE SOUTHWEST EMANATING FROM A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER OVER HAINAN, CHINA. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM THE REGION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 30 KNOTS AND IS BASED ON SURFACE PRESSURE OF 1001 REPORTED FROM QIONGHAI, CHINA, AND A 241427Z METOP-A ASCAT IMAGE SHOWING 30 KNOTS ON THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT AT THE SWATH EDGE. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITION ARE CURRENTLY MARGINAL AS EASTERLY UPPER- LEVEL FLOW FROM THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH IS EXERTING STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE TO THE SOUTHWEST IS FAIRLY ROBUST AND FUELING THE FLARING CONVECTION. CURRENTLY TD 22W IS TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP- LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH ANCHORED OVER TAIWAN AND THE EASTERN SHORE CHINA. 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. B. TD 22W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN BOUNDARY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED REEMERGE OVER THE WARM WATERS OF THE TONKIN GULF IN THE NEXT SIX HOURS REMAINING WELL INTACT WITH A MAXIMUM INTENSITY OF 30 KNOTS. BY TAU 24 THE SYSTEM WILL MAKE LANDFALL OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF VIETNAM AND BEGIN DISSIPATING AS IT TRACKS FURTHER INLAND. TD 22W IS FORECAST TO FULLY DISSIPATE BY TAU 36. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS PRIOR TO MAKING LANDFALL BUT BEGINS TO DIVERGE THEREAFTER AS IT DISSIPATES OVER LAND. OVERALL THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK.// NNNN NNNN