Tropical Storm HAIMA Advisory пт, 21.10.

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 25W (HAIMA) WARNING NR 25//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON 25W (HAIMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 169 NM SOUTHEAST OF
HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON A RECENT PGTW SATELLITE
FIX AND A 201546Z GMI IMAGE. THE INTENSITY OF 80 KNOTS IS CONSISTENT
WITH SUBJECTIVE DVORAK AND AUTOMATED SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES
FROM MULTIPLE REPORTING AGENCIES. TY 25W HAS MAINTAINED A LARGE (60
NM), RAGGED EYE OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS WHILE TURNING INCREASINGLY
POLEWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE
POSITIONED TO THE NORTH AND EAST. THE ESTIMATED INTENSITY HAS
DECREASED ONLY SLIGHTLY UNDER THE COMPETING INFLUENCES OF FAVORABLE
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, DECREASING ALONG-TRACK OCEAN HEAT CONTENT, AND
A BROAD CONVECTIVE STORM STRUCTURE.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN.
   B. TY 25W WILL CONTINUE TO ROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
STEERING RIDGE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, MAKING LANDFALL TO THE
EAST OF HONG KONG AROUND TAU 12. SLOW WEAKENING IS EXPECTED PRIOR TO
LANDFALL AS STORM STRUCTURE REMAINS BROAD AND ALONG-TRACK OCEAN HEAT
CONTENT DECREASES. THEREAFTER, TY 25W WILL RAPIDLY DISSIPATE AS IT
CONTINUES TO MOVE INLAND. NUMERICAL MODEL FORECAST TRACK GUIDANCE
REMAINS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT, AND THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK LIES
NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.//
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