Tropical Storm LIONROCK Advisory пн, 29.08.

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 12W (LIONROCK) WARNING NR 44//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON 12W (LIONROCK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 356 NM SOUTH OF
YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 17 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
TIGHT SPIRAL BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WELL DEFINED 18 NM EYE WITH
DEEP CONVECTION STARTING TO WEAKEN. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE EYE FIXES FROM PGTW AND RGTD WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 110 KNOTS AND IS BASED ON DROPPING
DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM ALL AGENCIES WITH THE CURRENT INTENSITY STILL
BEING HELD AT T6.0 (115 KNOTS). UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
SIGNIFICANT DISRUPTION TO OUTFLOW OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. THE
DEEPENING TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST IS CREATING STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW AND RESTRICTING THE EQUATORWARD CHANNEL. A TUTT CELL TO THE
NORTHEAST IS FURTHER EXACERBATING THE RESTRICTED EXHAUST OVER THE
SYSTEM. CURRENTLY TY 12W IS TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE
EXTENSION OF A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE SOUTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. IN THE SHORT TERM FORECAST, TY 12W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
TRACK NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE NER WHILE UNDERGOING
SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT TRACKS INTO COOLER
WATERS AND UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE. BEYOND
TAU 24, STEERING WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO A NORTHERN DEEP-LAYERED
RIDGE ANCHORED NEAR THE KURIL ISLANDS AND TURN TY 12W ON A
NORTHWESTERLY TRACK INTO THE DEEPENING TROUGH OVER JAPAN. LANDFALL
IS EXPECTED OVER NORTHERN HONSHU AROUND TAU 36 SOMEWHERE NEAR
SENDAI, JAPAN WITH THE INTENSITY NEAR 70 KNOTS. TY 12W IS EXPECTED
TO START EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AFTER TAU 36 AS IT BEGINS TO
INTERACT WITH BAROCLINIC ZONE WITHIN THE TROUGH. THE MOUNTAINOUS
TERRAIN OF NORTHERN HONSHU WILL SIGNIFICANTLY DISRUPT THE LOW LEVEL
WIND FLOW RESULTING IN SEVERELY WEAKENED SYSTEM BY TAU 48 AS IT
RESURFACES OVER THE SEA OF JAPAN WITH AN INTENSITY OF APPROXIMATELY
45 KNOTS. TY 12W IS EXPECTED TO BECOME FULLY EXTRATROPICAL BY TAU 72
AS IT TRACKS INTO MANCHURIA. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO
MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT OVER THE LAST TWELVE HOURS SHOWING TIGHTER
GROUPING DURING THE NORTHWEST TURN AND TRANSITION INTO THE TROUGH.
THE GFDN AND COAMPS-TC SOLUTIONS ARE THE FAR EASTWARD OUTLIERS
SHOWING A MUCH WIDER AND SLOWER TURN WHICH DOESN'T REFLECT THE
CURRENT SYNOPTIC SITUATION WELL. THE JGSM ENSEMBLE MEAN REMAINS THE
FAR WESTWARD SOLUTION SHOWING A TIGHTER TURN, BUT IS NOW CLOSER TO
THE REST OF THE GROUP, REFLECTING LESS VARIATION IN THE ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS. THE FORECAST TRACK IS PLACED CLOSE TO THE GLOBAL MODELS,
GFS, ECMFW, NAVGEM, UKMET, AND JGSM WHICH SHOW CLOSE GROUPING
THROUGH TAU 48 AS IT TRACKS OVER HONSHU. THERE STILL IS A DEGREE OF
UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT POSITION AND TIMING OF THE NORTHWESTWARD
TURN, BUT DUE TO BETTER AGREEMENT OF GLOBAL SOLUTIONS THERE IS GOOD
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK.//
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