Tropical Storm LIONROCK Advisory ср, 24.08.

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 12W (LIONROCK) WARNING
NR 24//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON 12W (LIONROCK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 297 NM EAST OF
KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY DEPICTS AN AREA
CONSOLIDATED SYMMETRIC CDO FEATURE WITH A RAGGED EYE BEGINNING TO
FORM. THE POSITION IS BASED ON SATELLITE FIXES FROM PGTW AND RJTD
WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 65 KNOTS
AND IS BASED ON OBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES
REPORTING T4.0 (65 KNOTS). UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE
PRESENCE OF BOTH A POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL, BUT IS
SHOWING SIGNS OF DETERIORATION AS A DEVELOPING ANTICYCLONE TO THE
SOUTH FORMS AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW FROM THE DEEP-LAYERED RIDGE TO
THE NORTHWEST STRENGTHENS. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR VALUES ARE CURRENTLY
FAVORABLE DIRECTLY OVER THE SYSTEM. TY 12W IS LOCATED WITHIN A WEAK
STEERING ENVIRONMENT BETWEEN THE DOMINANT WESTERN SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) AND EASTERN STR, AND IS DRIFTING GENERALLY SOUTHWARD.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TS 12W WILL REMAIN TRAPPED WITHIN THIS COMPETING STEERING
ENVIRONMENT WHILE DRIFTING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD THROUGH
TAU 36. THE WESTERN STR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ENTRENCHED OVER THE
EAST CHINA SEA AND OKINAWA PROVIDING A BARRIER TO ANY SIGNIFICANT
WESTWARD MOVEMENT. TS 12W IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY UNDER
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS TO A PEAK OF 80 KNOTS BY TAU 36.
   C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) IS
FORECAST TO BUILD TO THE SOUTH OF TS 12W WHILE A DEEP MIDLATITUDE
TROUGH DEEPENS OVER JAPAN, ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO ACCELERATE
NORTHEASTWARD. WHILE THE MODEL VORTEX TRACKERS DIFFER ON THE EXACT
NATURE OF THE TURN EASTWARD, THE TRACKERS ALL SHOW AN EASTWARD TURN
WITH DIFFERENT TRACK SPEEDS. DUE TO THE COMPLEXITY OF THE STEERING
ENVIRONMENT AND UNCERTAINTY IN THE EASTWARD TURN, THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
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