Tropical Storm MUIFA Advisory ср, 26.04.

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03W (THREE)
WARNING NR 05//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
 TROPICAL STORM 03W (THREE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 274 NM
NORTHWEST OF YAP, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS DEEP
FLARING CENTRAL CONVECTION DEVOID OF ANY SIGNIFICANT BANDING
FEATURES. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED
ON AN ELONGATED LOW REFLECTIVITY FEATURE OBSERVED IN A 251751Z 85
GHZ SSMI IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS BASED
SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T2.0 TO 3.0 (30 TO 45
KNOTS) AND A 251245Z METOP-B ASCAT IMAGE SHOWING A COUPLE 35 KNOT
BARBS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY FAVORABLE WITH LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WARM SSTS NEAR 29 CELSIUS, AND AN EXCELLENT
POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL FEEDING INTO THE MID-LATITUDE JET. DESPITE
THE GOOD ENVIRONMENT THE AFOREMENTIONED ASCAT IMAGE ALSO SHOWS AN
ELONGATED AND POORLY ORGANIZED LOW LEVEL STRUCTURE. CURRENTLY TS 03W
IS TRACKING WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TS 03W WILL CONTINUE ON ITS TRACK GUIDED BY THE CURRENT
STEERING RIDGE. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO INTENSIFY REACHING A PEAK INTENSITY
OF 45 KNOTS. BEYOND TAU 24 TS 03W WILL ROUND THE RIDGE AXIS AND
ACCELERATE TO THE NORTH EAST. INTERACTION WITH THE MID-LATITUDE
WESTERLIES WILL INCREASE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND RAPIDLY DISSIPATE
THE SYSTEM BY TAU 72. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS TIGHT AGREEMENT
IN THE TRACK TRAJECTORY, ALTHOUGH SOME SOLUTIONS ARE SHOWING FASTER
ACCELERATION TO THE NORTHEAST AROUND TAU 48. THE FORECAST TRACK IS
PLACED WITH OVERALL HIGH CONFIDENCE NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.//
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